Citigroup lowered its forecast to $17.75 billion (US$2.21 billion) from $18.25 billion (US$2.21 billion) in September by adjusting its estimate for Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR). The change follows a significant 10% drop in GGR for the week of Sept. 9-15. According to Citigroup analysts George Choi and Ryan Cheng, Macau’s GGR was estimated at $8.5 billion (US$1.06 billion) for the first 15 days of September, with daily returns of $536 million (US$66.8 million) for the period falling from previous estimates. Analysts attribute the drop to lower-than-expected volume in both the VIP and public gaming sectors.

Weak VIP and Public Market Transactions:

The decline in GGR is mainly attributable to lower betting activity in the VIP and popular gaming sectors. According to Inside Asian Gaming, VIP trading volumes are down 8% to 10% month-on-month, while public gaming volumes are down 10% to 12%. To complicate matters even further, lower VIP hold rates, which measure how much casinos maintain as revenue from total bets, make them less profitable from high-yield betting.

Despite these numbers, Citigroup analysts believe the weakness could be short-lived. They speculate that some players may postpone their visit to Macau until the Mid-Autumn Festival, which runs from Sept. 15-17, to boost the GGR later this month. Still, the revised forecast represents a cautious outlook for the rest of September, with Citigroup projecting a daily run rate of $617 million (W76.9 million) for the rest of the month. The updated forecast represents a 19% year-over-year improvement in September 2023 and has recovered the GGR to around 80% year-over-year.

The downward revision is not the first for Macau’s September GGR forecast. Earlier this month, Citigroup lowered its initial estimate to $18.25 billion from $18.5 billion, citing some disruptions caused by Typhoon Yagi, according to a report by GGRAsia. The typhoon that hit the region in early September temporarily reduced visitor numbers and gaming volumes. Despite the negative short-term impact, Macau’s GGR has been on the rise throughout 2024, helped by a return to international tourism and increased activity in the gaming sector.

The Golden Week is coming up in October:

September’s GGR may not have come close to previous expectations, but analysts are optimistic about the upcoming Golden Week holiday in October, which is expected to drive significant tourism and gaming sales in Macau. Morgan Stanley Asia expects daily GGRs to reach $900 million ($112.1 million) over the Golden Week holiday, potentially exceeding $20 billion for the entire month. Once that figure is achieved, it is expected to increase by 1% compared to October 2023.

Morgan Stanley analyst Praveen Chowdhary and Gareth Leung believe the popular market game could recover to 114% to 115% of 2019 levels over the October holiday season, while VIP games are expected to recover to 23% to 25% of pre-pandemic levels.

Macau’s government tourism agency (MGTO) is expecting visitor numbers to surge during the Golden Week in October. MGTO Director Maria Helena de Sena Fernandez has forecast daily visitor numbers in Macau to reach 100,000 during the holiday season, which runs from Oct. 1 to Oct. 7. However, 안전 슬롯사이트 Morgan Stanley analysts say these estimates could be conservative, as Macau averaged 118,000 daily visitors in August. Using historical data from 2019, when visitor numbers rose 20% during the Golden Week compared to July and August, estimates daily visitor numbers could rise to 129,000 during the upcoming holiday season.